Big tension for India as Bangladesh getting closer to Pakistan and China, here’s how

Bangladesh has faced major turmoil after Sheikh Hasina’s government was overthrown. The country is dealing with political instability, a rise in extremism, attacks on Hindus, and other problems. This is not good news for India. Reports say that both China and Pakistan might be involved, which adds to the worries. Whatever happens in Bangladesh directly affects India, as seen during the 1971 war. Right now, the country is led by Mohammad Yunus, who is known for his anti-India views.

Growing Chinese influence in Bangladesh

According to a report by StratNews Global, China is increasing its investments in Bangladesh, particularly in infrastructure, energy, and telecommunications sectors. Bangladesh has been an active participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The country owes China approximately USD 17.5 billion, raising fears of falling into a Chinese debt trap.

Both of Bangladesh’s major political parties—the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Bangladesh Awami League—have fostered closer ties with China, leading to increased Chinese investment during their respective tenures.

At present, China maintains contact with Bangladesh’s caretaker government and influential groups within the country, including radical organizations like Jamaat-e-Islami. Beijing has adopted a cautious yet opportunistic and strategic approach to Bangladesh, aiming to capitalize on the political instability. This poses heightened concerns for India, as China’s growing presence in Bangladesh could further complicate regional dynamics.

China winning over Bangladesh with soft power

China is making consistent efforts to win the hearts and minds of young Bangladeshis. It provides financial support for areas like education, technology, and infrastructure. Additionally, China offers travel assistance and scholarships for Bangladeshi students to study in Chinese universities. These efforts are part of a larger strategy to influence developing nations like Bangladesh through soft power.

Strengthening China-Bangladesh defense ties

According to Swedish think tank SIPRI, China supplied 72 per cent of Bangladesh’s necessary weapons between 2019 and 2023. Beijing also played a key role in building the “BNS Sheikh Hasina” naval base south of Chittagong. This base, inaugurated in 2023, can house six submarines and eight warships. China has provided the Bangladeshi navy with two submarines (BNS Nabajatra and BNS Joyjatra), as well as several frigates and corvettes. Reports suggest that China is also offering training on operating the submarines and the newly constructed naval base.

Bangladesh’s growing economic dependence on China

China has been Bangladesh’s largest trading partner for over a decade, with bilateral trade exceeding $25 billion. According to Chinese state media, Bangladesh is home to 700 Chinese-funded companies. The country’s textile industry, which accounts for 80% of its $45 billion annual exports, heavily relies on China. Over 70% of the raw materials required for fiber and garment manufacturing are sourced from China, underscoring Bangladesh’s dependence on its northern neighbor.

Bangladesh strengthening ties with Pakistan

Reports suggest that Pakistan played a role in the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government and is now working to deepen diplomatic and trade relations with Bangladesh. Pakistan recently announced a new visa policy, granting Bangladesh inclusion among 126 countries eligible for free visas. Last year, Bangladeshi leader Mohammad Yunus met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif twice, signaling warming ties between the two nations.

Naval collaboration between Bangladesh and Pakistan

Following Sheikh Hasina’s departure, Pakistan’s envoy in Dhaka has been meeting with BNP, Jamaat-e-Islami, and other radical leaders. Bangladesh has shown interest in increasing agricultural imports from Pakistan under its next government. Additionally, reports indicate that Bangladesh plans to conduct joint naval exercises with the Pakistani Navy in the Bay of Bengal. Bangladesh will also participate in a multinational naval drill scheduled to be held in Karachi in February 2025.

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