Washington: Russia’s Moskva warship sank in the Black Sea after being hit by two Ukrainian missiles before, a senior Pentagon official said on Friday. “We assess that they hit it with two Neptunes,” news agency Reuters quoted a US official who called the move a “big blow” for Moscow. The US official’s statement confirmed Kyiv’s account of the incident — which Russia said was caused by exploding ammunition on board.
Earlier today, Russia said the Moskva missile cruiser, the flagship of its Black Sea Fleet, has sunk while being towed to port following what it said was a fire and explosions involving ammunition stowed onboard. Ukraine, on the other hand, said that Moskva’s fate was sealed by a missile strike launched by its forces from the coast which ripped open the hulking Soviet-era ship’s hull. Russia’s defence ministry has not confirmed that version of events.
Despite the varied account of the event, the sinking of the warship has raised questions about Russia’s battle-readiness. Here we try to analyse how big a loss to Russia is the sinking of the Moskva missile cruiser was?
WILL IT LOSS CHANGE THE COURSE OF THE UKRAINE CONFLICT?
The sinking of the ship is unlikely to affect the course of the war in Ukraine, however, Britain’s Ministry of Defence said its loss is likely to prompt Russia to review its naval posture in the Black Sea, according to the news agency Reuters. The report also quoted US officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, who said that while the sinking would have a symbolic impact and potentially raise questions about Russia’s longer-term naval capabilities, it would be unlikely to have a major impact on the course of the conflict. The Russian navy has so far not played a big role in the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
HOW BIG A BLOW TO RUSSIAN MILITARY PRIDE IS THE SINKING?
The loss of the warship would be a bitter loss for the Russian military as the ship, though ageing, was a symbol of the Crimea-based Black Sea Fleet and Russian military pride. If it was holed by Ukrainian anti-ship missiles, it would be the biggest Russian warship to be lost in action since 1941, when German dive bombers crippled the Soviet battleship, Marat, in Kronshtadt harbour. The sinking, whether by Ukrainian missile strikes or through a mishap, “is a major propaganda victory for Ukraine,” Reuters reported quoting an assessment by the ISW. Western diplomats and experts expect senior officers in the Black Sea Fleet to lose their jobs over the sinking.
WHAT CAPABILITIES DOES THE SINKING DEPRIVE RUSSIA OF?
Russia has powerful air defence systems deployed in Crimea, which it seized from Ukraine in 2014, but the Moskva was able to provide long-range and mobile air defence protection for the entire Black Sea Fleet and was a floating command and control centre. Its loss degrades the fleet’s air defences, particularly on longer-range missions.
Quoting one US official, a Reuters report said that Russia had only used its warships in a limited fashion, to carry out occasional strikes and resupply troops in the south. Russia retains naval dominance in the immediate region and the Moskva was equipped to destroy enemy vessels at sea but little is left of Ukraine’s navy.
However, Moskva was not armed with any unique weapons, It had anti-ship missiles and surface-to-air missiles, but was not equipped with Russia’s latest generation Kalibr cruise missiles or hypersonic missiles.
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CREW?
The ship had a crew of around 500 sailors who Russia said were successfully evacuated to other ships before being returned to their homeport of Sevastopol in Crimea on Friday. Ukraine has suggested there are likely to have been fatalities, but Russia has not said anything on the subject yet.
WAS THE MOSKVA EARMARKED FOR A ROLE IN THE UNFOLDING CONFLICT?
It is not yet clear if Moskva had any role in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, but some analysts say it may have helped support a possible Russian amphibious landing in the Ukrainian port of Odesa that has not happened yet because of resistance from Ukrainian forces. Its sinking may be seen in some quarters in Ukraine as reducing the chances of such an assault and allow Ukraine to redeploy some of its forces elsewhere.
CAN RUSSIA EASILY REPLACE THE MOSKVA’S CAPABILITIES
No. Russia has two other ships of the same class, Marshal Ustinov and the Varyag, which serve with Russia’s Northern and Pacific fleets respectively. Turkey, which controls access to the Black Sea via the Bosphorus, will not let them enter at a time of war.
HOW MODERN A SHIP WAS IT?
Not very. Designed in the 1970s Soviet Union during the Cold War, it was conceived to destroy US aircraft carriers and had been in service for nearly four decades. It underwent an extensive refit, and according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence, only returned to operational status in 2021. Despite that refit, some of its hardware remained outdated.
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