Life and death are both essential for the balance of existence. If new generations are not born, eventually, a country or society could cease to exist. This is precisely the looming crisis Japan is facing today. Despite being a global leader in science and technology, Japan is now struggling with an alarming population decline. Recent government data reveals a shocking trend and if the current decline continues, projections suggest that by January 2720, Japan may see only one baby born in the entire country. The birth rate in Japan has been consistently falling for the past nine years, reaching an all-time low in 2024.
Demographic experts warn that if Japan continues on this path, it could face an existential crisis. Let’s take a closer look at the reasons behind Japan’s declining birth rate and what this could mean for the country’s future.
Japan’s latest population
Japan’s health ministry recently released its latest population data—only 720,988 babies were born in 2024, a 5% decline from the 758,631 births in 2023. To put this into perspective, India recorded approximately 29.4 million births in 2024, according to Countrymeters.
Japan’s birth rate has hit its lowest level since 1899, when the government first started keeping track of such data. Meanwhile, the country also recorded 1,618,684 deaths in 2024, marking a 1.8% increase from the previous year. This means more people are dying than being born, creating a significant population decline.
As a result, Japan’s total population shrank by nearly 900,000 people, setting a new record for demographic decline. For every child born, two people are passing away, pushing the nation further into a population crisis.
Japan’s population peaked at 128.1 million in 2008, but since then, it has declined by nearly 5 million. According to projections by Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, the country’s population could drop below 100 million by 2048 and fall to 87 million by 2060. In other words, Japan could lose over 40 million people—almost a third of its population—in just a little over 50 years.
Could Japan become the first country to disappear due to declining birth rates?
A startling prediction by Professor Hiroshi Yoshida from Tohoku University’s Research Center for Aged Economy and Society suggests that if Japan’s birth rate continues to decline at the current rate, by the year 2720, only one child under the age of 14 will remain in the country. His analysis warns that in 695 years, Japan as a nation could cease to exist. He stated, “If the birth rate does not recover, the ‘clock’ will turn backward. Japan could become the first country in the world to vanish due to a population crisis.”
Why is Japan’s birth rate declining?
There are multiple reasons behind Japan’s shrinking birth rate, with economic factors and changing social dynamics playing a crucial role.
- Fewer marriages, fewer births: Although Japan saw a 2.2% rise in marriages in 2023, reaching 499,999 weddings, this increase does not make up for the steep 12.7% decline in 2020. experts warns that the after-effects of this decline will be visible even in 2025.
- Financial insecurity: Experts believe that economic instability and rigid gender expectations are making marriage less appealing for young Japanese.
- Job security and marriage: Many women prefer men with stable, full-time jobs before considering marriage, but Japan’s labor market offers fewer permanent jobs. This discourages men with irregular incomes from seeking marriage.
- Women in the workforce: On the other hand, many women also struggle with job instability, working in temporary or low-paying positions. Uncertain income makes it difficult for them to consider raising a family.
- Traditional expectations: “Men are still expected to be the primary breadwinners.” This expectation pressures men into avoiding marriage if they feel financially unprepared, while women are left with limited options for balancing career and family.
Why are people avoiding marriage in Japan?
Experts believe that economic instability is one of the main reasons why many young Japanese men are choosing to stay single and not have children. The lack of well-paying jobs has created a situation where both men and their potential partners feel they cannot afford the financial burden of a family.
Additionally, Japan is known for its demanding work culture, where long working hours are the norm. In fact, the country even has a term—”karoshi” (death from overwork)—which highlights how excessive work pressure affects people’s lives.
Govt’s action to address its declining population
To encourage marriage and boost birth rates, the Japanese government has introduced several initiatives. One of the most unique efforts was the launch of a state-sponsored dating app by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government. This move even caught the attention of Elon Musk, the billionaire CEO of SpaceX, Tesla, and X (formerly Twitter). He praised Japan’s awareness of the issue, warning that if action wasn’t taken, Japan (and several other countries) could eventually disappear.
In addition to matchmaking efforts, Japan is offering financial support to encourage people to marry and have children. This includes expanding childcare facilities and providing housing subsidies. Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba backed a 3.6 trillion yen (approx. $24 billion) childcare policy package to ease the financial strain on families.
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