A long-term peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. would not automatically mean that regular shipping will start again through the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon has informed legislators that mines planted by Iranian military forces would take up to six months to remove from the strait before normal shipping can resume. The shipment has been interrupted since the commencement of hostilities on February 28.
Strait of Hormuz crisis: Why could mine clearance take up to six months?
According to The Washington Post, the mine-removal estimate was provided during a classified briefing Tuesday for members of the House Armed Services Committee. Because of the long timeframe that mine-cleanup operations are expected to take, the odds are that higher energy prices will persist for several months in the United States. Fuel and oil prices in the United States will likely remain high through at least the midterm elections.
Global oil and gas prices have recently surged after Iran virtually blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, that handles roughly 20 per cent of global oil and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas).
The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, handles nearly 20 per cent of global petroleum liquids and about a fifth of global LNG shipments. About 2.5-2.7 million barrels per day, or roughly 50 per cent of India’s crude imports, transit through the route, largely sourced from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait.
How will delays in reopening Hormuz impact global fuel prices?
According to the Pentagon, the Iranian government has added “significant” amounts of naval mines to the Strait of Hormuz. The timeline for a full clearance of these mines may take up to six months. However, one obstacle is that no operations can begin until hostilities between the US and Iran have ceased. This means that the economic effects related to the war may last through the end of the calendar year 2026, or even beyond.
During a briefing on Tuesday to members of the House Armed Services Committee, the Pentagon indicated for the first time the extent of this crisis at the Strait of Hormuz. Concerns regarding the lengthy timeline for clearance and what effect this will have on fuel prices have been raised.
Many US citizens are displeased with President Donald Trump’s initiation of the war, and the polls, as cited by the Pentagon, show that his decision has driven a wedge into his political base, which supported him largely based on his commitment to focus on domestic issues instead of engaging in military conflicts with foreign nations.
According to AAA, the nationwide average price of gas in the US was $4.02 per gallon as of Wednesday, up from $2.98 prior to the war starting in February. Former President Trump has been inconsistent with his statements about when gas prices might drop; however, earlier in the month, he said that they could be “the same or maybe a little bit higher” by the midterms, but then he backtracked and stated they would likely be “much lower” before the election. Additionally, Scott Bessent, US Treasurer Secretary, stated it could possibly take until late September before “gas prices return to $3 again”.
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